Monday, March 10, 2008

Time's a Wastin

Television pundits have passed through the giddy stage contemplating a brokered convention for the Democrats and have now entered the second round of Hillary-Inevitability. The first round ended when Obama began to cash in on the palpable hunger for change which the sane feel as a natural reaction to the Bush regime. This hunger pushed Obama ahead of Clinton as a more plausible bearer of the change banner.

I came late to the Obama party. I held out hope for a hat tossed in the ring, or at least a wink or a nod form Al Gore. When it became apparent that he would, in fact, sit this one out, I decided to go with Obama, and said so here.

I was resigned to the fact that Clinton was the likely winner even though I was troubled by the primogeniture-ish feel of a continuation of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton power sharing arrangement in place now since 1981, and promised to continue to 2017 if Clinton were victorious; that's 36 years for those scoring at home. Obama showed some surprising strength and this seemed to spook the Clinton camp and throw it off stride. The result was not a recognition of the need for real change but rather a reveal of low down tactics that could prove to be a scorched earth policy.

Victory in the Fall is still even-money. But it is quite possible that Clinton's tactics will drive down Democratic participation making it less likely that a tidal wave of Democratic House and Senate seats will result from a Presidential win. The result would be more gridlock and more capitulation to a radical minority.

Mrs. Clinton needs to remember that even though she greatly admires John McCain and thinks he's more qualified to be President than Barack Obama, in the event that she is nominated but dosen't win, a lot of things she supposedly values are on the line. The game of chicken she is playing with Obama now threatens not only a continuation of rule through minority maneuvering but more importantly, it threatens to place Supreme Court appointments in the hands of a so-called moderate with something to pay back or prove to conservatives. The effect of those appointments, likely between two and four, could make the mangling of the Constitution under Bush look absolutely Bush league.

My advice to Obama:
the best way to get this thing nailed down NOW is to call Al Gore and plead with him to join Obama as his running mate. That is a recipe for a landslide of epic proportion. Gore can go on about his business trying to save the planet from Global Warming and still remain a heartbeat away from the presidency. After all, look what Cheney was able to do for the military industrial complex from his second row seat.
My advice to Gore:
put your pride in a lockbox and call Barack. Your country needs you, both.

__________________________________________

What follows is not original. It points out the fact that Clinton is playing with fire and someone responsible needs her put down the kerosine.

Breaking the Final Rule By Gary Hart The Huffington Post

Friday 07 March 2008
It will come as a surprise to many people that there are rules in politics. Most of those rules are unwritten and are based on common understandings, acceptable practices, and the best interest of the political party a candidate seeks to lead. One of those rules is this: Do not provide ammunition to the opposition party that can be used to destroy your party's nominee. This is a hyper-truth where the presidential contest is concerned.

By saying that only she and John McCain are qualified to lead the country, particularly in times of crisis, Hillary Clinton has broken that rule, severely damaged the Democratic candidate who may well be the party's nominee, and, perhaps most ominously, revealed the unlimited lengths to which she will go to achieve power. She has essentially said that the Democratic party deserves to lose unless it nominates her.
(emphasis added)

As a veteran of red telephone ads and "where's the beef" cleverness, I am keenly aware that sharp elbows get thrown by those trailing in the fourth quarter (and sometimes even earlier). "Politics ain't beanbag," is the old slogan. But that does not mean that it must also be rule-or-ruin, me-first-and-only-me, my way or the highway. That is not politics. That is raw, unrestrained ambition for power that cannot accept the will of the voters.

Senator Obama is right to say the issue is judgment not years in Washington. If Mrs. Clinton loses the nomination, her failure will be traced to the date she voted to empower George W. Bush to invade Iraq. That is not the kind of judgment, or wisdom, required by the leader answering the phone in the night. For her now to claim that Senator Obama is not qualified to answer the crisis phone is the height of irony if not chutzpah, and calls into question whether her primary loyalty is to the Democratic party and the nation or to her own ambition.
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15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Al's great, but he generates almost as much animosity as Hillary. No need to generate more of that at this point. Lots of acceptable alternatives.

And not to quote Mr. Chaney, but she's going through her 'last throes."

Obama will outlast her, and the party will pressure her to drop out soon.

John Miller

John Manzo said...

I really don't know the right answer here.

If the Democrats did their primaries like the Republicans (winner take all in each state) Hillary Clinton would have already won the election. She's won the largest states.

Barack Obama, however, has won more states and has the lead in delegates.

Neither person is going to win this out right. Ultimately it will be up to the super-delegates and the leadership of the party to choose who they want as the nominee.

Both will get smeared. The reports are going to come out that she murdered Vince Foster, etc., etc., etc. The Clintons both manage to estrange and anger enough people that they will always be targets. Some of it is very fair, some of it is not fair, but that's their situation right now.

There will be allusions to Barack Obama's middle name Hussein. Whether it is used as an initial or written outright, it will be used. Despite the fact that Senator Obama is a long time Christian, this name will be used to make him appear to be Islamic. And it will work.

They both will, I think, fall victim to sexism and racism by many.

Would any of these things be enough to derail either of them? It's difficult to say. John McCain tying himself to President Bush makes him an heir to a disastrous foreign policy and a recession. "More of the Same" is not a great thing to run on.

I believe both of them need to be incredibly cautious that in trying to win that they do not destroy their opponent. Hillary's allusion that she or McCain are the people best qualified to answer the red phone is dreadful. Her words will show up again if Obama is the candidate.

I have been consistently for Hillary but that does disturb me, a lot. Then she has floated offering Barack Obama the role of Vice President. During the Super Bowl the Patriots players were inviting the Giants to their post Super Bowl 'Perfect Season' celebrations. That was an act of hubris and it didn't work out well for them. Much to my delight, btw. :-)

I don't know. You raise some really good questions and I'm fearful that the longer this remains unresolved, the worst things will become.

John Gonder said...

John Miller:

I don't think Gore generates so much animosity outside of Dittohead Nation. I think his accomplishments and the comparison to The Bubble Boy now tend to make people think "if only..." rather than "thank God Bush beat Gore", which I heard expressed just after the terrorist attack in 2001.

John Gonder said...

John Manzo:

I agree the proportional system has favored Obama and kept the game on longer than if a winner-take-all rule had been in place. But those are the rules they play by.

I don't subscribe to the notion that Hillary is a monster as the Strong woman suggested. She did have a formidable head start, what with the name recognition she possessed and the near unanimity of opinion that she would sail easily into the White House. Against that backdrop, Obama's accomplishments are significant.
Really, for me, the single biggest disqualifier of Hillary is the trading of keys to the Oval Office among such a small group of citizens out of the 300 million Americans. Even if McCain wins, it will be effectively a third term for The Decider.

Until the insidious influence of lobbyists and other issue-oriented donors is wrung out of the system, I'm not too confident that democracy will get a fair shake out of our electoral process.

I'm certain the 2008 version of Slime Boat Veterans for Truth are getting their sights set on the eventual Democratic nominee regardless of who it is.

Rush Limbaugh supposedly prevailed upon his listeners to bloddy up Obama. The result was either to cause him to use up campaign funds or perhaps to place a thumb on the scale favoring Clinton. The inference being that the Right Wingers feel they have a better chance of defeating Clinton than Obama. If that's the case, I don't want to cooperate in their plans.

Anonymous said...

John:

My thinking is the same with 'ol Bill: sure he had some interesting ideas in 92, but we already knew he was a flawed personality--wasn't there someone with similarly good ideas who could be trusted to keep his pants on? (He couldn't, and we knew it.)

Same with Al--very smart, and has probably learned how to campaign better, but isn't there someone out of 300 million citizens with equal credentials, and without the baggage?

I hear lots of disgruntlement over him, beyond the Limbaughites. Probably just embarrassment over 2000--he reminds all sides of a stolen election...

John Miller

Anonymous said...

Also, see Governor Elliot Spitzer.

(We can do better than this!)

JohnM

John Gonder said...

John Miller:

Regarding Gov. Spitzer, when did it become obligatory to punish the wife of a man caught in a bizzaro sex deal?

In the future I'd prefer to see the man stand alone before the reporters and take the bashing as a man for something he did that distinctly did not involve his wife.

Here's a small confession from me. I think I mentioned that Elliot Spitzer would make a good Vice Presidential for Obama, since he couldn't run with Hillary because she's a fellow New Yorker.

Obama: "I'd like to introduce my Vice, Governor Spitzer."

Gov. Spitzer: "Let's leave my vice out of this."

Jeff Gillenwater said...

And yet, we all know that Bill will be in the middle of decision making if Senator Clinton is elected.

The longer the campaign runs, the less impressed I am with Hillary. Her PR machine is, in fact, a monster and I think the Obama campaign miscalculated some things with regard to Samantha Power, who's arguably more qualified to have a say in foreign affairs than Hillary or any of her campaign staffers.

I'd put Ms. Power front and center, explaining her credentials and talking openly about what she said and why she said it.

Samantha Power has dedicated most of her adult life to human rights and increased international understanding. Obama sought out her counsel after being excited by her research, which has been recognized with a Pulitzer Prize for non-fiction and the Anna Lindh Professorship of Practice of Global Leadership and Public Policy at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government and she's not yet 40.

Most of the Clinton campaign's spokespersons are hired PR honchos who'd say anything about anybody if paid to. They've proven it, continuing to work for major corporate clients while Clinton stumps against corporate interests. Which side their on depends on where the check is coming from.

It speaks volumes about to whom the two candidates listen and how they conduct business. People should know that story. The press focused on the "controversial" remarks and, contrary to some opinions, played it way soft on Hillary.

Daniel Short said...

John - at this point, Hillary cannot win with pledged delegates. The pressure is on the super duper delegates now. Democrats alway give themselves a way out just in case their constituency doesn't vote the way they want. Hillary cannot win and she is whispering about Obama being the Veep. Like I said, time to lawyer up.

John Gonder said...

bluegill:

It's absolutely important who counsels the candidates, it's one of the most revelatory moves they make during the campaign. These are, to some extent, surrogates for later cabinet appointments and other significant appointments and this foreshadows the level of judgment the candidate would bring to such decisions if given a chance.

You are much more informed about Ms. Powers than I. Obviously, since I didn't even get her name right.

I'm sure that Mrs. Clinton, if elected, would tend to rerun a lot of the talent that staffed the first Clinton administration, just as Bush has done by drawing from the talent pool of the G.O.P. stretching back to the Nixon
administration. Obama may be tempted to fish in the same waters because because it takes time to build a reputation that would recommend one for national service. (Witness Brownie's handling of the Katrina hurricane aftermath as a rationale for experience.)But his call for change offers a break, or at least some distance, from the methods and personnel of the past. I don't have confidence that Clinton could easily turn away lobbyists. At least Obama offers the hope that he may be able to do so.

I read that upon his election in 1960, J.F.K. met with the ambassador from Great Britain who expressed the hope that the "special relationship" with Britain would continue. J.F.K.'s response was that he was not familiar with such a relationship. He was thus a bit of a novice but many feel his new viewpoint might have kept us out of deeper involvement in Vietnam, had he lived to complete his term.

John Gonder said...

Daniel:

As I write this the results from the Mississippi primary are mostly in. Obama has won, as expected. I believe that as time passes between now and Pennsylvania, Mrs. Clinton's resurrection after Texas and Ohio will prove to be short lived.

The Indiana primary will actually be given rare prominence. There's even going to be an Obama headquarters in New
Albany, I hear.

I believe the lawyers may end up sitting this one out.As a former President said "If one candidate's running on hope and one's running on fear bet on hope every time." Unfortunately for him, his wife is the fear peddlar this time.

Look for the next fear factor to be Obama's overwhelming appeal among black voters.

ecology warrior said...

Go Hillary! I am not jumping on the hyped up, all fluff and no stuff Obama train that runs so rampant among the so called intelligensia, new age Democrats.

John Gonder said...

Ecology Warrior:

My sentiments approximately.

Go Hillary.

The New Albanian said...

I'm so old that I remember when it was expedient for ecology warrior to be a Republican.

ecology warrior said...

well like everything roger, political ideologies can change just like people can change. agreed? and if its not Hillary as the nominee, go Nader!